Carpio: 3 possible scenarios in South China Sea arbitration ruling

Best case scenariocarpio

…the senior justice is hopeful of the best case scenario, in which the tribunal would rule the 9-dash lines claims as void; the Itu Aba does not generate an EEZ, confirms the status of the low tide elevations identified by the Philippines; Scarborough Shoal generates only a territorial sea which is a traditional fishing ground of the Filipino fishermen.

By: Frances Mangosing /  INQUIRER.net / March 31, 2016

Three scenarios are likely in the decision of the The Hague on the Philippines’ territorial dispute with China over the South China Sea, with the tribunal not ruling on the case as the “worst case scenario,” Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said on Thursday.

“The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea will die because that means it cannot settle the most important maritime dispute today and if it cannot settle, then it’s useless. People will not go to avail of the remedies under UNCLOS,” he said in a forum.

The forum “Arbitration Ruling: Geopolitical Possibilities, the 2nd Heneral Antonio Luna Colloquium Series” was held in Camp Aguinaldo and was attended by military personnel, representatives from embassies and the Department of Foreign Affairs.

The worst case scenario, according to the senior justice, is when the tribunal does not rule on the validity of the 9-dash lines; declares that Itu Aba generates an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and Scarborough Shoal generates only a territorial sea; and does not rule on other issues.

If this happens, Carpio said the Philippines and other claimants will have to “buy warships, warplanes and anti-ship missiles” to defend their maritime zones. Read more…

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