China shoots itself in the foot with divide and rule tactics in Asean
by TANG SIEW MUN / June 17, 2016 / TodayOnline
Relations between the Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) and China suffered yet another blow during the Special Asean-China Foreign Ministers’ Meeting that ended in Kunming, China, on Tuesday.
From Asean’s standpoint, the meeting was intended to help repair its fraying relationship with China due to developments in the South China Sea. In fact, the proposal for the meeting was initially met with scepticism within Asean for fear that China will use the meeting as a public relations exercise to serve Beijing’s ends. This concern turned out not to be unfounded as China attempted to have the Asean foreign ministers endorse a 10-point consensus in Kunming.
China had steadfastly maintained that the South China Sea issue should be kept off the Asean-China table, maintaining that the territorial disputes should be resolved through bilateral talks. Beijing’s stance is that the issue, which pits China against four Asean member states in Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, should not spill over to influence ties between both sides.
This is wishful thinking and more than anything amplifies Beijing’s growing disconnect with regional sentiments and Asean’s growing unease with China’s use of its political, economic and military power.
It is telling that a statement released on the meeting by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs focused exclusively on the upcoming Asean-China Commemorative Summit. The South China Sea did not get a single mention, even though this was the primary subject of discussions between the ministers. On the other hand, 55 per cent, or 512 out of 929, of the words contained in the retracted Asean Foreign Ministers’ statement was on the South China Sea.
The fact that the statement was discussed and initially agreed upon by Asean demonstrates the possibility of the pact achieving unanimity on the South China Sea issue without undue external interference. Equally important, the collective effort undermines China’s allegations that some Asean countries have taken on an anti-China bent, as seen from their forthright views and assessments on the issue.
In the midst of this drama, the meeting will long be remembered for the retraction of the statement. Unusually, the statement was circulated to the media by Malaysia. This oddity became more puzzling when a Malaysian foreign ministry spokesperson retracted the statement with an announcement that there were “urgent amendments to be made”.
This unusual turn of events immediately raises the question of Malaysia’s involvement in the debacle and the reasons for the retraction.
Perhaps a more insidious development pertains to reports of Laos and Cambodia withdrawing their support for the statement at the eleventh hour. This is reminiscent of the fiasco in Phnom Penh in 2012, when Asean foreign ministers failed to issue a joint communique for the first time in its 45-year history. At that point, China had reportedly pressed Cambodia to keep the South China Sea topic from finding its way into the statement.
History repeated itself in Kunming, but will China’s long hand show itself again at the Asean Foreign Ministers Meeting next month? At this point, China has warned Asean not to cross the “red line” in issuing a joint statement on the impending Permanent Court of Arbitration’s (PCA) ruling on the South China Sea. What effect these warnings have on Asean remains to be seen, but the evidence presented in Kunming points to Beijing having a winning hand.
Quite frankly, China’s ability to muzzle Asean is disturbing.
It undermines Asean centrality and prevents the grouping from having meaningful discussions on strategic issues. By stage-managing the organisation through allies such as Laos and Cambodia, China robs Asean of its utility as a platform for intra and inter-regional cooperation. China’s purported hold on these two Asean members gives Beijing an indirect but effective veto over positions anathema to its interest. Read more…
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